By the end of this breakdown, we’ll look at who would
win if the Oscars were held tomorrow – and which big names are
most likely to get robbed on Oscar night.
Best Actor – The Bloodbath Category
Let’s start with the nastiest fight of the year: Best
Actor.
Right now, the core group showing up on almost every
prediction list includes:
- Leonardo
DiCaprio for One Battle After Another
- Timothée
Chalamet for Marty Supreme
- Michael
B. Jordan for Sinners
- Jeremy
Allen White for Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
- Wagner
Moura for The Secret Agent
- George
Clooney for Wolfs
Leonardo DiCaprio feels like the early frontrunner.
If One Battle After Another is the major Best Picture player
people expect, his performance becomes the face of that campaign. Big, intense,
emotional – exactly the kind of turn voters love to reward.
Timothée Chalamet is positioned as the main
challenger. Marty Supreme is being framed as his “this is
the one” role, the performance where he finally graduates from wunderkind to
full‑on Oscar winner. If the film over‑performs with critics, the race could
very quickly become DiCaprio versus Chalamet all season long.
Michael B. Jordan in Sinners is the really
dangerous dark horse. A genre‑bending period vampire story with serious
themes gives him something unique to play. If audiences and critics connect, he
could ride an “overdue and undeniable” narrative straight into the frontrunner
spot.
Jeremy Allen White, Wagner Moura and George Clooney round
out the field with strong “possible nominee” energy, but right now, if the
Oscars were tonight, Best Actor probably comes down to DiCaprio holding
a slim lead over Timothée Chalamet, with Michael B. Jordan waiting to steal it
late.
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Best Actress – The Emotional Core
On the Best Actress side, it’s all about
emotional anchors and career‑defining turns.
The most common names in early forecasts are:
- Jessie
Buckley for Hamnet
- Renate
Reinsve for Sentimental Value
- Emma
Stone for Bugonia
- Rose
Byrne for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
- Chase
Infiniti for One Battle After Another
Jessie Buckley feels like the performance to beat.
If Hamnet emerges as a top‑tier Best Picture contender, her
role becomes the emotional core of the entire film. That “heart of the movie”
status is exactly how so many recent Best Actress winners have been crowned.
Renate Reinsve comes in as the critical darling. Sentimental
Value already has Cannes prestige behind it and Reinsve has the
reputation of someone making incredible, nuanced choices. She could easily
become the performance critics scream about all season – even if the Academy
hesitates to actually give her the win.
Emma Stone in Bugonia adds that “Oscar
regular” presence – another bold, potentially eccentric performance from
someone voters already love.
Meanwhile, Rose Byrne and Chase Infiniti bring fresher
energy to the race – Byrne with a sharp, character‑driven turn, and Chase
Infiniti as the breakout face of One Battle After Another.
If the ceremony were tomorrow, Jessie Buckley would
be the pick for Best Actress, with Renate Reinsve as the most likely “how
did she lose?” talking point the next day.
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Supporting Races – Steals, Scene‑Chewers & Potential
Locks
The Supporting categories are already
starting to form their own narratives.
Supporting Actor
In Supporting Actor, two names stand out in almost every
early list:
- Benicio
Del Toro for One Battle After Another
- Paul
Mescal for Hamnet
Benicio Del Toro has “potential lock” written
all over him. If he delivers a show‑stealing role in a major Best Picture
contender, this could quickly become one of those races that feels over by
January.
Paul Mescal, on the other hand, fits the “soulful
heart” template. If his role in Hamnet quietly
devastates audiences, he could build huge momentum with critics’ awards and
BAFTA – and suddenly this isn’t a lock at all, it’s a full‑on battle.
Supporting Actress
In Supporting Actress, the two most frequently mentioned
names are:
- Ariana
Grande for Wicked: For Good
- Elle
Fanning for Sentimental Value
Ariana Grande could benefit from pure visibility.
If Wicked: For Good becomes a phenomenon and her performance
lands emotionally, voters might be very tempted to reward the film somewhere in
acting – and Supporting Actress is the natural place.
Elle Fanning represents the more traditional “prestige”
acting lane. A subtle, critically adored turn in Sentimental Value could
make her the critic’s choice, even if the Academy leans a bit more populist on
the night.
Right now, if we had to call it early: Benicio Del
Toro and Ariana Grande feel like the slight favourites – but both categories
are primed for at least one brutal snub.
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Best Director – The Brutal Showdown
Finally, Best Director – and this is where
the 2026 race gets really intense.
The big five being mentioned everywhere are:
- Chloé
Zhao for Hamnet
- Paul
Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
- Ryan
Coogler for Sinners
- Guillermo
del Toro for Frankenstein
- Jon
M. Chu for Wicked: For Good
Chloé Zhao versus Paul Thomas Anderson has the potential to
be an absolutely brutal showdown. Zhao directing another intimate,
awards‑friendly drama with Hamnet could give her a second
Oscar, while Anderson, still chasing his first Best Director win, might be
steering the biggest, most ambitious film of the year.
Ryan Coogler sits right behind them as the potential
spoiler. If Sinners becomes a critical and commercial
smash, he could ride a huge wave of industry goodwill – “it’s time we finally
give him one” – straight into the winner’s circle.
Guillermo del Toro and Jon M. Chu round out the line‑up from
the more genre and musical side of the race. Frankenstein and Wicked:
For Good will likely be major directing showcases – visually bold,
technically impressive – but they’ll need serious Best Picture heat to actually
push their directors into “frontrunner” status.
If the Oscars were tonight, Paul Thomas Anderson has
the narrow edge for Best Director, with Chloé Zhao just behind and Ryan
Coogler waiting to turn this into a three‑way war.
- SAG vs Oscar : SAG Award Winners Who Never Won An Oscar
https://www.cinemaawardsarchive.com/2025/12/sag-vs-oscar-sag-award-winners-who.html - Every SAG Best Actor Winner (1994-2024)
https://www.cinemaawardsarchive.com/2025/12/every-sag-best-actor-winner-1994-2024.html - 30 Oscar Scandals That Shocked Hollywood
https://www.cinemaawardsarchive.com/2025/12/30-oscar-scandals-that-shocked-hollywood.html - Golden Globes vs Oscars: 14 Biggest Disagreements That Shocked Everyone
https://www.cinemaawardsarchive.com/2025/12/part-1-85-greatest-actors-who-never-won.html
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Who Wins, Who Gets Robbed?
So that’s where the 2026 acting and directing races stand
right now:
- DiCaprio
and Chalamet in a Best Actor knife‑fight
- Jessie
Buckley leading a brutal Best Actress lineup
- Benicio
Del Toro and Ariana Grande looking dangerous in Supporting
- And
a Best Director race that could come down to a handful of votes
But what do you think? Who actually wins if the Oscars were
held tomorrow – and who’s your pick for the biggest robbery of the
night? Let me know your Best Actor, Best Actress, Supporting, and Director
winners in the comments.
Don’t forget to like the video, subscribe
to Cinema Awards Archive on YouTube for more Oscars 2026 breakdowns,
and follow the Cinema Awards Archive blog for deep dives into
awards history, predictions and festival coverage. And if you haven’t already,
check out the 2026 Best Picture predictions post to see how
all these races connect.
