The Main Best Picture Contenders
Right now, a handful of titles have separated themselves as
serious Best Picture contenders. These films appear on almost every major early
prediction list:
- Hamnet
- One
Battle After Another
- Sentimental
Value
- Sinners
- Wicked:
For Good
- The
Secret Agent
- A
House of Dynamite
- Frankenstein
- Wake
Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
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1. Hamnet
Right now, Hamnet sits comfortably in that
“prestige drama” lane the modern Academy loves. Intimate, emotional,
beautifully acted – especially if Jessie Buckley lands the performance people
are expecting.
- Nomination
chances: Very strong
- Win
chances: Real, but more of an outside threat
Why it can win: it has that quietly devastating quality
that can build momentum with critics, BAFTA and the acting branch. If it over‑performs
in categories like Actress, Supporting Actor, Screenplay and Score, it suddenly
looks like a real contender.
The danger? In a loud year of big epics and flashy
campaigns, Hamnet could become the classic “we respect you,
but we’re not voting for you” nominee.
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2. One Battle After Another
If there’s a current frontrunner, it’s One
Battle After Another. Across prediction lists, this is the film most people
have at or near number one.
Big scale, big emotions, a major role for Leonardo DiCaprio,
and the kind of ambitious filmmaking the Academy loves to crown. This is the
movie that could tick every box: Picture, Director, Actor, Screenplay, Editing
and a huge craft haul.
If the Oscars were tonight, One Battle After Another
is the pick to win Best Picture.
What could stop it? Expectations. If
reviews are anything less than “masterpiece,” it opens the door for a smaller
but more passionately loved film to slip through.
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3. Sentimental Value
Sentimental Value comes in as the Cannes‑blessed critical
darling. This is the kind of film that critics will fight for all season:
precise, emotional and anchored by another major Renate Reinsve performance.
It absolutely has a path to a Best Picture nomination,
especially if it clicks with international voters and the directors’ branch.
But the win? That’s tougher.
It needs overwhelming critical support and a strong campaign
to avoid becoming “the beautiful film everyone assumes will lose.” If we’re
talking snubs, this is one that could easily end up with raves, a
Best Actress nomination, and then somehow miss Best Picture entirely.
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4. Sinners
Sinners might be the most fascinating wildcard
in the race. A period vampire film from Ryan Coogler, with Michael B. Jordan
potentially in Best Actor contention, it has the ingredients to be both a big
audience hit and a serious awards player.
If Sinners threads the needle – genre but
elevated, stylish but deeply thematic – it could become the big, popular
Best Picture winner of the season.
But there’s a huge risk: genre bias. Horror and
vampire elements still scare off some older voters. If voters can’t quite get
over that, Sinners becomes this year’s “beloved by fans, under‑rewarded
by the Academy” contender.
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5. Wicked: For Good
Wicked: For Good is aiming to be the giant musical
juggernaut of the season. Massive brand recognition, a built‑in
fanbase and potential acting nominations for Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande.
Add in costumes, production design, sound, original song –
this could rack up a serious nomination tally. A Best Picture win is possible
if it becomes a genuine cultural event and critics are on
board.
The downside: the Academy still hasn’t fully embraced big
musicals as winners. One or two lukewarm guild results and Wicked slides
into the “huge hit, lots of nominations, no top prize” category.
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6. The Secret Agent
The Secret Agent sits in that tense political
thriller space, with Wagner Moura getting quiet but serious early
buzz. This is exactly the type of film critics love: sharp, timely and
performance‑driven.
If the campaign is strong, it can absolutely sneak
into Best Picture. But its win chances are slim. Limited reach, a more
restrained tone and the sheer competition this year could keep it in the
“respected, not rewarded” tier.
If we’re talking heart‑breaking outcomes, The
Secret Agent feels like the one that ends the season on a stack of
“top 10” lists… but not with an Oscar.
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7. A House of Dynamite
A House of Dynamite could be the dark thriller
that explodes late in the race. With a director who already
has awards credibility, this has a shot at being the intense, topical movie
that guilds really rally around – especially in Editing and Sound.
But Best Picture will depend entirely on how strong the
reviews are. If it’s merely “good,” it gets pushed aside by Hamnet, Sinners and One
Battle After Another.
If it’s “great,” it can absolutely steal a
nomination. Win chances, though? Still a long shot.
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8. Frankenstein
Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein sits in
an interesting spot. On one hand, del Toro is beloved by the Academy and his
films almost always show up in the crafts. On the other hand, gothic
horror is not the easiest sell for Best Picture, especially in a
stacked year.
If Frankenstein plays like a tragic,
romantic character piece – less monster movie, more emotional epic – it can
claw its way into the Best Picture lineup. But there’s a real possibility it
ends up like many genre films before it: showered with technical nominations,
maybe an acting nod, and then ignored when it comes to the top prize.
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9. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Finally, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery.
Rian Johnson is respected, the franchise is clever and timely, and if this is
clearly the best of the trilogy, it will have a ton of buzz.
Realistically, though, franchise sequels almost never win
Best Picture. Even the first Knives Out, with huge love, couldn’t
crack the category.
So while a nomination isn’t impossible – especially if the
field softens – its win chances are extremely low. This is more
likely to be a fan favourite than the Academy’s top choice.
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Final Verdict – Who Wins If the Oscars Were Tonight?
If the Oscars were held tomorrow:
- Best
Picture frontrunner: One Battle After Another
- Main
challengers: Hamnet, Sinners and Wicked:
For Good
- Most
likely heartbreak snub: Sentimental Value or The
Secret Agent – exactly the kind of films critics adore but the
Academy has a long history of under‑rewarding
Now it’s your turn: which of these nine films do you
think actually wins Best Picture in 2026? And which one do you think
the Academy is going to completely rob? Drop your predictions in the comments,
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